EVM Forecasting I
New publication:
Evaluation of deterministic state-of-the-art forecasting approaches for project duration based on earned value management
In our most recent publication in the International Journal of Project Management, the accuracy of Earned Value Management forecasting methods has been validated on a set of empirical projects from our project database.
Abstract: In recent years, a variety of novel approaches for fulfilling the important management task of accurately forecasting project duration have been proposed, with many of them based on the earned value management (EVM) methodology. However, these state-of-the-art approaches have often not been adequately tested on a large database, nor has their validity been empirically proven. Therefore, we evaluate the accuracy and timeliness of three promising deterministic techniques and their mutual combinations on a real-life project database. More specifically, two techniques respectively integrate rework and activity sensitivity in EVM time forecasting as extensions, while a third innovatively calculates schedule performance from time-based metrics and is appropriately called earned duration management or EDM(t). The results indicate that all three of the considered techniques are relevant. More concretely, the two EVM extensions exhibit accuracy-enhancing power for different applications, while EDM(t) performs very similar to the best EVM methods and shows potential to improve them.
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Cite as: Batselier, J. and Vanhoucke, M., 2015, "Evaluation of deterministic state-of-the-art forecasting approaches for project duration based on earned value management", International Journal of Project Management, 33(7), 1588–1596 (doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.04.003).
Download a related publication on Earned Duration Management in the Measureble news by clicking on the link below: